Ensemble prediction for nowcasting with a convection-permitting model - II: forecast error statistics

A 24-member ensemble of 1-h high-resolution forecasts over the Southern United Kingdom is used to study short-range forecast error statistics. The initial conditions are found from perturbations from an ensemble transform Kalman filter. Forecasts from this system are assumed to lie within the bounds of forecast error of an operational forecast system. Although noisy, this system is capable of producing physically reasonable statistics which are analysed and compared to statistics implied from a variational assimilation system. The variances for temperature errors for instance show structures that reflect convective activity. Some variables, notably potential temperature and specific humidity perturbations, have autocorrelation functions that deviate from 3-D isotropy at the convective-scale (horizontal scales less than 10 km). Other variables, notably the velocity potential for horizontal divergence perturbations, maintain 3-D isotropy at all scales. Geostrophic and hydrostatic balances are studied by examining correlations between terms in the divergence and vertical momentum equations respectively. Both balances are found to decay as the horizontal scale decreases. It is estimated that geostrophic balance becomes less important at scales smaller than 75 km, and hydrostatic balance becomes less important at scales smaller than 35 km, although more work is required to validate these findings. The implications of these results for high-resolution data assimilation are discussed

A Universal Point Set for 2-Outerplanar Graphs

A point set $S \subseteq \mathbb{R}^2$ is universal for a class $\cal G$ if every graph of ${\cal G}$ has a planar straight-line embedding on $S$. It is well-known that the integer grid is a quadratic-size universal point set for planar graphs, while the existence of a sub-quadratic universal point set for them is one of the most fascinating open problems in Graph Drawing. Motivated by the fact that outerplanarity is a key property for the existence of small universal point sets, we study 2-outerplanar graphs and provide for them a universal point set of size $O(n \log n)$.Comment: 23 pages, 11 figures, conference version at GD 201

OSSOS: XXVII. Population Estimates for Theoretically Stable Centaurs Between Uranus and Neptune

We calculate the upper bounds of the population of theoretically stable Centaur orbits between Uranus and Neptune. These small bodies are on low-eccentricity, low-inclination orbits in two specific bands of semi-major axis, centred at $\sim$24.6 au and $\sim$25.6 au. They exhibit unusually long Gyr-stable lifetimes in previously published numerical integrations, orders of magnitude longer than that of a typical Centaur. Despite the increased breadth and depth of recent solar system surveys, no such objects have been found. Using the Outer Solar System Origins Survey (OSSOS) survey simulator to calculate the detection efficiency for these objects in an ensemble of fully characterised surveys, we determine that a population of 72 stable Centaurs with absolute magnitude $H_{r}\leq10$ ($95\%$ confidence upper limit) could remain undetected. The upcoming Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will be able to detect this entire intrinsic population due to its complete coverage of the ecliptic plane. If detected, these objects will be interesting dynamically-accessible mission targets -- especially as comparison of the stable Centaur orbital phase space to the outcomes of several modern planetary migration simulations suggests that these objects could be close to primordial in nature.Comment: Accepted to PSJ. 8 pages, 3 figures. Comments welcom

Drawing Arrangement Graphs In Small Grids, Or How To Play Planarity

We describe a linear-time algorithm that finds a planar drawing of every graph of a simple line or pseudoline arrangement within a grid of area O(n^{7/6}). No known input causes our algorithm to use area \Omega(n^{1+\epsilon}) for any \epsilon>0; finding such an input would represent significant progress on the famous k-set problem from discrete geometry. Drawing line arrangement graphs is the main task in the Planarity puzzle.Comment: 12 pages, 8 figures. To appear at 21st Int. Symp. Graph Drawing, Bordeaux, 201

Solar Wind Sputtering of Lunar Soil Analogs: The Effect of Ionic Charge and Mass

In this contribution we report sput-tering measurements of anorthite, an analog material representative of the lunar highlands, by singly and multicharged ions representative of the solar wind. The ions investigated include protons, as well as singly and multicharged Ar ions (as proxies for the heavier solar wind constituents), in the charge state range +1 to +9, and had a fixed solar-wind-relevant impact velocity of approximately 310 km/s or 500 eV/ amu. The goal of the measurements was to determine the sputtering contribution of the heavy, multicharged minority solar wind constituents in comparison to that due to the dominant H+ fraction

Clinical use and efficacy of biphasic insulin lispro 50/50 in people with insulin treated diabetes-A nationwide evaluation of clinical practice

© 2015 Informa UK Ltd. Objectives: This study aims to investigate the metabolic effects of biphasic insulin lispro 50/50 in routine clinical practice. A total of 229 patients who were 18 years old with diabetes, newly treated with biphasic insulin lispro 50/50, were sourced from six secondary care services in England. Methods: Detailed clinical parameters were compared at baseline, and 3 and 6 months post-initiation. Responders was defined as those with HbA1c 1% (11mmol/mol) at 6 months. Results: HbA1c showed significant reduction:-0.93% (-10mmol/mol) and-1.2% (-13mmol/mol) at 3 and 6 months respectively, while no significant change was noted for all the other parameters. When analyzed according to frequencies of injections/day, the greatest reduction was observed with the three times a day regimen (-1.0% [-11.0mmol/mol] and-1.3% [-14.6mmol/mol] at 3 and 6 months respectively). HbA1c reduction was greatest in the group who previously received a basal-bolus insulin regimen: (-0.8% [-9.0mmol/mol] and-1.5% [-16.2mmol/mol] at 3 and 6 months respectively). Reduction in weight was observed at 3 months (-1.8kg±4.3) only for those who were previously on a basal-bolus insulin regimen. Insulin doses increased following conversion to biphasic insulin lispro 50/50, irrespective of the types of insulin used prior to biphasic insulin lispro 50/50, but this was not associated with weight gain. The independent predictors of response to biphasic insulin lispro 50/50 were baseline HbA1c, Caucasian, presence of nephropathy, prior use of basal-bolus insulin and prior use of other premixed combination. Conclusion: Biphasic insulin lispro 50/50 is therefore an effective therapeutic option for achieving glycemic control in patients with suboptimal HbA1c levels, especially among those who were previously on a basal-bolus insulin regimen and those who received it three times daily, with a neutral effect on weight parameters. Limitations: This was a retrospective study of routine clinical practice and is therefore limited by allocation bias and some missing data. Information on rates of hypoglycemia and quality of life are not available

Beyond Outerplanarity

We study straight-line drawings of graphs where the vertices are placed in convex position in the plane, i.e., convex drawings. We consider two families of graph classes with nice convex drawings: outer $k$-planar graphs, where each edge is crossed by at most $k$ other edges; and, outer $k$-quasi-planar graphs where no $k$ edges can mutually cross. We show that the outer $k$-planar graphs are $(\lfloor\sqrt{4k+1}\rfloor+1)$-degenerate, and consequently that every outer $k$-planar graph can be $(\lfloor\sqrt{4k+1}\rfloor+2)$-colored, and this bound is tight. We further show that every outer $k$-planar graph has a balanced separator of size $O(k)$. This implies that every outer $k$-planar graph has treewidth $O(k)$. For fixed $k$, these small balanced separators allow us to obtain a simple quasi-polynomial time algorithm to test whether a given graph is outer $k$-planar, i.e., none of these recognition problems are NP-complete unless ETH fails. For the outer $k$-quasi-planar graphs we prove that, unlike other beyond-planar graph classes, every edge-maximal $n$-vertex outer $k$-quasi planar graph has the same number of edges, namely $2(k-1)n - \binom{2k-1}{2}$. We also construct planar 3-trees that are not outer $3$-quasi-planar. Finally, we restrict outer $k$-planar and outer $k$-quasi-planar drawings to \emph{closed} drawings, where the vertex sequence on the boundary is a cycle in the graph. For each $k$, we express closed outer $k$-planarity and \emph{closed outer $k$-quasi-planarity} in extended monadic second-order logic. Thus, closed outer $k$-planarity is linear-time testable by Courcelle's Theorem.Comment: Appears in the Proceedings of the 25th International Symposium on Graph Drawing and Network Visualization (GD 2017

The effect of different types of hepatic injury on the estrogen and androgen receptor activity of liver

Mammalian liver contains receptors for both estrogens and androgens. Hepatic regeneration after partial hepatectomy in male rats is associated with a loss of certain male-specific hepatic characteristics. In this study we investigated the effects of lesser forms of hepatic injury on the levels of estrogen and androgen receptor activity in the liver. Adult male rats were subjected to portacaval shunt, partial portal vein ligation, hepatic artery ligation, or two-thirds partial hepatectomy. Another group of animals was treated with cyclosporine. At the time of sacrifice the livers were removed and used to determine the estrogen and androgen receptor activity in the hepatic cytosol. A significant reduction (p < 0.05) in the hepatic cytosolic androgen receptor activity and a slight increase in the estrogen receptor activity occurred following total portosystemic shunting. Partial ligation of the portal vein, which produces a lesser degree of portosystemic shunting, had no effect on the levels of the estrogen and androgen receptor activity present within hepatic cytosol. Cyclosporine-treated animals had significantly greater (p < 0.01) levels of estrogen receptor activity in the hepatic cytosol compared to vehicle-treated control animals. Levels of estrogen and androgen receptor activity within the hepatic cytosol remained unchanged after ligation of the hepatic artery. The reduction in the cytosolic estrogen and androgen receptor activity in the liver after partial hepatectomy was confirmed. In summary, certain types of hepatic injury are associated with profound changes in the estrogen and androgen receptor content within the liver. © 1989 Informa UK Ltd All rights reserved: reproduction in whole or part not permitted